The Royals will need to sign a free agent starting pitcher
sometime this offseason (if they don’t go the trade route). They are losing
Ervin Santana and Bruce Chen, and Wade Davis was not very good and needs to see
a lot of improvement before providing value. The only guarantees for the
rotation are Shields and Guthrie. Bob Dutton of the KC Star has said that
Yordano Ventura has a spot in the rotation that’s his to lose. Danny Duffy will
probably get a spot. That leaves 1 more spot for a 5 man rotation, but injuries
happen. They’ll need more than 5 starting pitchers to get through the season.
Due to the Royals’ stated budgetary limitations, if they go for a free agent
starting pitcher, he’ll have to come cheap. My first free agent starting
pitcher target is Dan Haren.
Haren
spent 2013 starting for the Washington Nationals and put up 1.5 fWAR. In 2012,
he put up 1.8 fWAR for the Angels. However, from 2005-2011, Haren’s WORST
season was 3.8 fWAR. Haren is a buy-low candidate with the potential for a
rebound. This is similar to Ervin Santana’s situation last offseason. What kind
of pitcher is Dan Haren?
Haren
relies mostly on a sinker/cutter/split-finger mix. He mixes in a fourseam
fastball and curveball occasionally. What has decreased his value and
performance over the years is a decline in velocity. The decline in velocity
comes with aging, but Haren’s velocity rebounded a bit in 2013. It’s possible
that Haren’s velocity decline is finished. As his velocity has declined, he has
relied less on his 4 seamer and curveball and more on his cutter.
Against
both RHH and LHH, Haren increases the usage of his splitter, which is his out
pitch, as he gets ahead in the count. Haren uses it more against LHH than RHH,
though. Haren decreases usage of his sinker as he gets ahead in the count.
Against LHH, Haren uses his cutter fairly steadily in all counts. Against RHH,
Haren decreases the usage of his cutter as he gets ahead in the count.
His
splitter exhibits a bit of arm-side run (curves toward RHH) and quite a
vertical drop. Against LHH, Haren tries to keep the splitter low and outside;
against RHH, it appears he just tries to keep it low. His cutter shows some
horizontal movement, but not much. His cutter shows a similar vertical drop as
the splitter. Against RHH, Haren tries to locate the cutter low and away and
shows some ability to do so, though it seems he leaves a few too many up in the
zone. Against LHH, he throws his cutter mostly just inside, not high or low. He
tends to stay away from the middle part of the plate. His sinker shows more
arm-side run than the splitter but not as much vertical drop. It’s also faster
than his splitter. He doesn’t seem to have a great ability to command his
sinker, but he does have good control over it, as he can throw it for strikes.
Overall,
Haren’s “stuff” is fairly good; not great like it used to be, but definitely
adequate. He also shows a fair ability to locate his stuff, though if I were
scouting strictly from graphs and tables, I would say his stuff is better than
his command. Any scouting statements from me should be taken with a grain of
salt; I haven’t watched Haren throw in person or on TV.
Haren’s
claim to fame is that he strikes out batters more than the league average and
walks batters less than the league average. In fact, his K/BB ratio is
consistently near the top of the league. In 2013, Haren’s ERA/FIP/xFIP was
4.67/4.09/3.67. Haren’s peripheral stats based on strikeouts and walks show
that he is a better pitcher than his results show. Haren is a good candidate to
rebound in 2014.
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